Modelling and Analysis
What is modelling?
Modelling is the representation of a real world object or system in a mathematical framework. It uses software tools to imitate the operation of the real world system over time so that inferences can be drawn about potential future outcomes.
Why use modelling?
Modelling is an indispensable problem-solving methodology which can be used to describe and analyse the behaviour of a system, to ask what-if questions and to provide information to aid in the design and development of the real system.
Models are useful to analyse complex relationships between system components and to structure information about the economic and technical features of the system.
Building a market model involves re-creating a representation of the market in a mathematical modelling software package. The model makes assumptions about key components of the system and how they will change over time – demand, fuel prices, generation resources, market rules and interaction with other systems.
Modelling simulates the operation of the market and provides forecasts on areas of study such as plant scheduling, CO2 emissions, production costs and market price.
Advantages of Modelling
Modelling is a low-cost means of examining the way in which a system operates and of predicting future behaviour. It can be use to:
o Analyse proposed changes or additions to the system
o Examine the system over time
o Test hypotheses and compare different scenarios
o Identify constraints on the efficient operation of the system
o Identify and diagnose problems
o Develop understanding about the system
Modelling is used within SEMO, SONI and EirGrid to provide information which inputs into other projects and workstreams within the business, and to examine policy and technical issues.